Specialty Coffee & The Futures Market.

Specialty Coffee & The Futures Market.

26/12/2025.

How the commodities markets impact producers and our pricing. 

Coffee prices hit the headlines a few times this year as they skyrocketed amid adverse weather conditions and harvest reports from Brazil, and the infamous tariffs from the US. Summed up, it’s been a pretty chaotic year, and this has impacted our pricing and our partners in all the origins we work with. 

This runs counter to an idea I’ve often heard in specialty coffee: that by paying premiums for quality and traceability, we operate independently of the commodity (“C”) market - and this shields our producer partners from its volatility. 

I’m not sure if it was my own naivety or truly a common belief in the industry, but it  certainly felt true when the C-market was quiet and low. Earlier in 2025 however, prices hit historic highs with wild repercussions felt throughout the entire value chain - including the specialty market. 

This will have an impact on our pricing next year, and I felt it was important to communicate what’s actually going on. So, I reached out to our man on the ground in Peru, Cesar Marin, one of our long term partners from La Chacra D’Dago. 

 

La Chacra D'dago visiting Mood in 2024. Cesar Marin, Jack Armstrong, Hector Marin, Edu Marin.

On the topic of current market prices and the impact at origin, he had this to say:

“This year we’ve seen prices without precedent. When that happens, everything becomes more expensive - labour, processing, transport. It creates a kind of inflationary crisis locally, and costs skyrocket for producers.”

From our perspective, and with our goals in coffee, this isn’t necessarily a bad thing - rising wages and stronger local economies are critical for the sustainability of the industry. Still, for us, other roasters, and producers like Cesar, the cost of doing coffee responsibly has risen sharply.

 

The impact on Producers

As has often been said, and is still very true, the real impact of the futures market and its volatility is felt at the producer level, on this Cesar also outlined:

“The producer is always the most vulnerable link in the chain. When prices move this much, many farmers feel forced to break their relationship with their cooperative to chase the highest bidder. It’s understandable, but it weakens long-term sustainability.”


Coffee drying on patios at La Chacra D'dago.

For us, this is why long-term partnerships matter. When prices swing wildly, the best way forward is trust, communication, and a shared vision - something we’ve built with Cesar and his family over the last three years. And, while producers have always been exposed to the swings in the market, now it’s finally caught up with us on the consumer side of the value chain. 


What This Means for Our Coffees

In the last year we’ve absorbed steady increases in green coffee, keeping our prices stable while we see where we land coming into 2026. With everything finally locked in, the reality is that our cost of green coffee will be up around 25% across the board. 


We usually book about a year's supply, for our coffees from Peru, Brazil, Rwanda, and Burundi, so this increase mainly affects our blends and year-round staples (Eco Chico), which make up about 80% of what we roast.

Most of our seasonal single origins are adjusted ‘live’, as we simply calculate our margins on single coffees as they land in the roastery. So, as may have been noticed, we’ve already been making these changes to reflect this year’s harvest prices.

However, to keep things sustainable for us - and for the producers we rely on, we’ll be updating our prices by December 31st.

All Blends: 

1kg: 329kr. -> 369kr

250g:  105kr. -> 115kr.

Seasonal singles will be priced based on their individual landed cost price.

We’ve kept the increase as small as possible. Our own margins remain the same, in some cases they’re lower, to cushion the price impact, while ensuring the people at origin are paid fairly.


A Final Word:

We don’t see this as bad news. Higher market prices, when paired with long-term relationships, can strengthen producer communities and support more resilient, sustainable approaches to farming. For us, transparency is key to doing coffee the ‘right way’, if prices change, you should also know why. 

And in closing, thank you for your support, thanks for drinking, brewing, and sharing our coffee, and thank you for being part of a chain that reaches far beyond Denmark, to the farms, families, and communities who make epic coffee possible. 

-Jack, Mood. Coffee Roasters.

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